The 12 disruptive tech trends you need to know
McKinsey’s in-house think tank compiled a cheat sheet for the future of tech.
People pay plenty of money for consulting giants to help them figure out which technology trends are fads and which will stick. You could go that route, or get the same thing from the McKinsey Global Institute’s in-house think-tank for the cost of a new book. No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends, was written by McKinsey directors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, and offers insight into which developments will have the greatest impact on the business world in coming decades. Below, we’re recapping their list of the “Disruptive Dozen”—the technologies the group believes have the greatest potential to remake today’s business landscape.
Energy storage
The book's authors predict that the price of lithium-ion battery packs could fall by a third in the next 10 years, which will have a big impact on not only electric cars, but renewable energy storage. There will be major repercussions for the transportation, power generation, and the oil and gas industries as batteries grow cheaper and more efficient.
Genomics
As super computers make the enormously complicated process of genetic analysis much simpler, the authors foresee a world in which “genomic-based diagnoses and treatments will extend patients’ lives by between six months and two years in 2025." Sequencing systems could eventually become so commonplace that doctors will have them on their desktops.
Advanced materials
The ability to manipulate existing materials on a molecular level has already enabled advances in products like sunglasses, bike frames, and medical equipment. Scientists have greater control than ever over nanomaterials in a variety of substances, and their understanding is growing. Health concerns recently prompted Dunkin' Donuts to remove nanomaterials from their food. But certain advanced nanomaterials show promise for improving health, and even treating cancer. Coming soon: materials that are self-healing, self-cleaning, and that remember their original shape even if they’re bent.
Autonomous vehicles
Autonomous cars are coming, and fast. By 2025, the
“driverless revolution” could already be “well underway,” the authors
write. All the more so if laws and regulations in the U.S. can adapt to keep up. Case in point: Some BMW cars already park themselves.
Renewable energy
Wind and solar have never really been competitive with
fossil fuels, but McKinsey predicts that status quo will change thanks
to technology that enables wider use and better energy storage. In the
last decade, the cost of solar energy has already fallen by a factor of
10, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the sun could
surpass fossil fuels to become the world’s largest source of electricity
by 2050.
Advanced robotics
The robots are coming! “Sales of industrial robots grew by
170% in just two years between 2009 and 2011,” the authors write, adding
that the industry’s annual revenues are expected to exceed $40 billion
by 2020. As robots get cheaper, more dexterous, and safer to use,
they'll continue to grow as an appealing substitute for human labor in
fields like manufacturing, maintenance, cleaning, and surgery.
3D printing
Much-hyped additive manufacturing has yet to replace
traditional manufacturing technologies, but that could change as systems
get cheaper and smarter. “In the future, 3D printing could redefine the
sale and distribution of physical goods,” the authors say. Think buying
an electric blueprint of a shoe, then going home and printing it out.
The book notes that “the manufacturing process will ‘democratize’ as
consumers and entrepreneurs start to print their own products."
Mobile internet
The explosion of mobile apps has dramatically changed our
personal experiences (goodbye hookup bars, hello Tinder), as well as our
professional lives. More than two thirds of people on earth have access
to a mobile phone, and another two or three billion people are likely
to gain access over the coming decade. The result: internet-related
expenditures outpace even agriculture and energy, and will only continue
to grow.
Automation of knowledge work
It’s not just manufacturing jobs that will be largely
replaced by robots and 3D printers. Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel report
that by 2025, computers could do the work of 140 million knowledge
workers. If Watson can win at “Jeopardy!” there’s nothing stopping computers from excelling at other knowledge work, ranging from legal discovery to sports coverage.
Internet of things
Right now, 99% of physical objects are unconnected to the
“internet of things.” It won’t last. Going forward, more products and
tools will be controlled via the internet, the McKinsey directors say,
and all kinds of data will be generated as a result. Expect sensors to
collect information on the health of machinery, the structural integrity
of bridges, and even the temperatures in ovens.
Cloud technology
The growth of cloud technology will change just how much
small businesses and startups can accomplish. Small companies will get
“IT capabilities and back-office services that were previously available
only to larger firms—and cheaply, too,” the authors write. “Indeed,
large companies in almost every field are vulnerable, as start-ups
become better equipped, more competitive, and able to reach customers
and users everywhere.”
Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery
The International Energy Agency predicts the U.S. will be
the world’s largest producer of oil by 2020, thanks to advances in
fracking and other technologies, which improved to the point where
removing oil from hard-to-reach spots finally made economic sense.
McKinsey directors expect increasing ease of fuel extraction to further
shift global markets.
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